The aim of this thesis is to provide to the governmental decision-maker/user,
an instrument that can assist him/her in improving the infrastructure
investment decision in the economical, environmental and sustainable aspects.
This means that, the Return on Investment (ROI) of the concerned transport
infrastructure, satisfying environmental and sustainable constraints must be
positive, and corresponding to an optimal investment cost.
The decision support system can be applied in two dimensions.
One dimension is where the real negotiation process is occurring between
private and public stakeholders, called “real time negotiation process”.
The second dimension is where the negotiation process is impelled by the user
(public part) without private stakeholders interaction (but with interaction
through simulation), called “virtual negotiation process”.
The simulation and local optimization techniques, in phase with agent
technology, used in the “virtual negotiation process” enable us to achieve a
certain amount of alternative decisions to the primary/suggested decision to be
evaluated.
The CommonKADS methodology with mathematical modeling, and agent technology
have been the support respectively for extracting and implementing the
knowledge in the domain, monitoring, automating and updating the decision
process.
The principle of “Joint logistic” [1] in my effort concerns by the means of
sharing financial and information resources; This leads to the empowerment of
the supply chain feedbacks (roles), involved in the earlier stages of public
transport decision making-process.
It appears that within the decision-making process, the government is often
dealing with the conflicting objectives, while interacting with the business
stakeholders.
For instance, the estimated investment cost of a specific transport
infrastructure can exceed the income generated by this infrastructure, thus the
ROI of the concerned transport infrastructure (TI) will be negative. From this
perspective the government faces three choices:
a) increase the rate of the taxes applied on that transport infrastructure or
any other taxes, in order to make ROI positive, this can be matter of
discussion/disagreement for the business community
b) reduce the investment cost which means suggest a different TI with a lower
quality standard compared to the previous; this can also be a matter of
disagreement between the two concerned stakeholders.
c) delay of the investment in the specific transport infrastructure.
In fact in the most situations the government uses the first approach, which
effects might be consequently unpredictable and disastrous in the economical
and environmental sense for the government.
From this point of view my attempt is to propose an intelligent decision
support system for governments or project groups (e.g. East West project
group), involving conceptually as components web portal, database, simulator
and knowledge base, that bases on an approach, that enables this
negot...
