Abstract
Title: Ethanol for Scania??s future ?? A scenario based analysis
Authors: Anna Hansson and Julia Persson
Tutors: Annette Cerne ?? Department of Business Administration, Lund University
Jonas Holmborn ?? Head of Advanced Combustion, Engine Development, Scania
Lennart Thörnqvist ?? Department of Energy Sciences, Faculty of Engineering, Lund University
Problem: Oil-based products are the dominating fuels in the transport sector but alternative fuels are currently challenging the world-wide dominance. The large number of alternative fuels that are under development at present makes the future fuel-market impossible to predict. Scania??s ethanol project is associated with a number of uncertainty factors that are beyond the company??s control. Some of these uncertainty factors can be associated with the company??s stakeholders and their interests. Other uncertainties derive from available evaluations of ethanol, since they only consider the fuel from a single perspective, instead of making a holistic assessment.
Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to identify uncertainties, from multiple perspectives, which will work as an early warning system that can create awareness of alternative futures regarding fuel ethanol. When this is done, strategies for the ethanol venture at Scania will be developed, with the help of Scenario Planning. The method used for fulfilling the purpose will be described in order to create a framework that can be used by Scania to make further assessments of other fuels.
Method: A qualitative method has been used for this study, which has also been conducted in an iterative way. Data has mainly been collected through literature-studies, but also interviews have been made. The working process has followed a number of steps with inspiration from O??Brien??s Scenario Planning method.
Conclusions: The 4s Framework, which can be used for strategic planning in highly uncertain contexts, was created. For ethanol to have a chance of becoming one of the truly good fuel options, energy efficiency, environmental friendliness and security of supply have to be improved. The fuel has to be competitive without the support of legal and financial control systems. Scania??s management need to decide if the company should take a proactive or a more careful preventive approach and communicate this strategy to the organisation. Scania??s R&D department needs to prepare for a number of alternative f...
